We’ve been hearing about this “blue wave” that Democrats are apparently about to unleash in the midterms for a while now. The liberal media has been telling us that Democrats are going to crush the Republicans in the fall. Historically, it makes a little bit of sense. The party not in power usually does well. But, it really seems like Democrats are overplaying their hand here.
On Monday, we learned of more information that contradicts the media’s prediction that Democrats are going to wipe the floor with Republicans.
According to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, what was a +12 point lead for Democrats in the congressional generic ballot is down to just a four point lead.
When asked three months ago if they would vote for a Republican or Democrat if the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, by a margin of 51 percent to 39 percent, voters chose Democrats.
Back in November, Democrats enjoyed a +10 point lead.
Today, though, the margin is just four points, or 47 percent to 43 percent.
Things aren’t trending in the right direction for liberals.
From Washington Post:
With the Republicans’ House majority at risk, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate in their district, while 43 percent favor the Republican. That four-point margin compares with a 12-point advantage Democrats held in January. Among a broader group of voting-age adults, the Democrats’ margin is 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent. …
Democrats hold an advantage ahead of the midterm elections, but a Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that edge has narrowed since January, a signal to party leaders and strategists that they could be premature in anticipating a huge wave of victories in November.
The poll finds that the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates dropped by more than half since the beginning of the year. At the same time, there has been a slight increase in President Trump’s approval rating, although it remains low. Measures of partisan enthusiasm paint a more mixed picture of the electorate in comparison to signs of Democratic intensity displayed in many recent special elections.
Ed Morrissey correctly points out that this is not good for Democrats.
From Hot Air:
A four-point margin will not be enough to swing the House back to Pelosi. Thanks to the limitations of polling and the geography involved, a four-point Democratic lead in the generic poll is predictive of basically a push, a return to the status quo with only a net exchange of a handful of seats. Of course, the Washington Post isn’t the only pollster with a generic congressional ballot question in their series, but the RealClearPolitics average shows the same kind of erosion across all pollsters.
There’s more than six months to go to the election, and lots can change between then and now. But the fact that Trump’s job approval — while still underwater — has climbed steadily all year suggests that the wind whipping a presumed blue wave may be much weaker than Democrats had supposed.
Isn’t this starting to feel like 2016 all over again? The media told us Hillary had it in the bag and we basically shouldn’t even bother voting and now they are telling us that everyone hates Trump and the Republicans are doomed.
Doesn’t really add up.
Also, don’t forget that Republicans have been raising a ton of money which suggests they have more momentum than the media is admitting.